Stanley Druckenmiller on What Makes a Great Investor, Bitcoin & His Biggest Trades

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and the more companies that we help succeed the more will eventually come back to us sort of like a good karma kind of thing so listen learn and grow with hubspot podcast network hubspot dot com slash podcast network yeah i feel like i could rule where i know i could be what i want to put at all in it like a days on on the road less travel never look back so today trump who writes our daily email and is going viral on twitter right now is here with the special episode trump what are people want to listen to alright so i had to chance interview of stanley dr miller he's widely consider one of the greatest investors ever just top level notes one of the richest people in america were five point six bill he famously broke the bank of england with while working at george sources fund a quantum fund he made a billion dollars on a trade shorting the british pound and he has an incredible investing track record over forty years he's never had a down year two thousand and eight he was up eleven percent which a lot of boss point to as the impressive thing so even when the entire market tanking he's be able to be up and the other thing that he's really known for in terms of his track record is thirty years of thirty percent returns or more so thirty for thirty i don't know who else has that record i know if you look at buffett annual lies over his entire careers like twenty percent a year but thirty percent for thirty years straight is outrageous so that's amazing i would like that but our audience is typically guys and and folks building building companies is not necessarily investing but we wanted to air this anyway because a you're blowing up and people wanna hear from you and if this works maybe you're gonna wanna do your own podcasts but also how does this apply to our listeners and what should they look out for absolutely so the first thing i wanna mention ashley that i forgot to say was this entire meeting was set up by toggle ai you can find them at toggle dot global t o g l e dot global and the reason why they set it up is because stan actually an investor in their company so he's invest in startups and they're a fintech company so they're able to set the meeting but the if you were to answer your questions around the lessons of what people can apply i say they're kind of three takeaways from just his mindset as an investor that i think matter in in in a business building world is he said what makes a great investor is having small bets in in in concentrated positions but with super high conviction and the example he brings up in the interview that you will hear coming up is he mentions buffett and carl icon and he says if you actually look at them they're not doing the whole nba playbook of diversifying they're identifying crazy good opportunities and going all in on them and he brings up his personal examples when he broke the pound or broke the bank of england is he went into george sources office and said hey we put one hundred percent of the fund into this short trade and then the lesson that he drew from as source goes to him and says if you're so confident in this trade why aren't we doing even more why isn't there a hundred and fifty percent of the fund in it or two hundred percent when using leverage right which is exactly what they ended up doing so the number one thing would be you know find something that you really really have a high confidence in and kinda go all in on it that's one thing i think could be you you i thought you said he takes so a lot of small bets no no he he makes he said to take high conviction bets when i said small bets is like i think it was more just his track record over thirty years is what you're alluding to is he has a long career where he's been across many assets and a lot of different investments but having said that as an investor where his biggest wins are when he's gone all in and he's found his once in a generation opportunities the other thing that he does is you know the famous is saying for mark andre andres is is you know strong ideas but loosely held like being able to strong beliefs how exactly so being able to take an information and and having the conviction i talk about like he did with this pound trade but then if if information changes being able to pivot and he actually famously during the dot com bubble was one of these people he was shorting it from ninety eight ninety nine and he's like this is insane it's never gonna play out and it's gonna be really bad for a lot of people but then he was losing hundreds of millions of dollars shorting the dot com bubble and to the quote there he literally turned around he didn't take his money off the shorts he went long so it's insane he did a full one eighty after fully convincing himself that and that it was a bubble and he still believed it was a bubble but he was looking into information and he didn't believe that that he could win or in in in trading terms he didn't wanna fight the tape anymore so that was pretty amazing but then that leads into my third lesson which is it's all about a motion at the end of the day and he was explaining that in in nineteen ninety nine after he went from a fully short position in the dot com bubble he went long and he made billions of dollars and ninety nine and in two thousand he's like okay i'm taking all my chips off the table i think the bubbles finally gonna burst but this is where the emotion component comes in he watched two younger portfolio managers earns team keep ryan dot com bubble and he couldn't take it anymore and this guy's like a twenty five year vet right and with a impeccable track record but he could not take the fact that there were two people underneath him outperforming him so he literally called his broker put a six billion dollar bet back on the market and he says in the interview that he basically called the top of the dot com my ten minutes he ended up losing three billion dollars and insane right and he goes and he goes people always ask me what did you learn from losing three billion dollars effectively in a couple of months he's like i learned nothing like i already knew that lesson and you never to invest on my emotion but i still couldn't help myself and it's just i think that's just the forever battle it doesn't meet matter how seasoned or good or amazing you are or or amazing your past track record is you always have to battle that demon of the emotions i mean you tweeted this morning right you tweeted something about something about psychology in emotion you're reading a new book and i think you said that what was the quote you put is if you're comparing yourself to gonna be miserable to compare yourself that right so like it it's like there's these little things about emotions a psychology that will always be with you know no matter how successful you are so i think those would be the three takeaways is high concentrated contrary bets in high conviction plays the ability to change course if it's clear that it's not working and then the third thing is just like you're wrestling with emotion no matter who you are you could be at nobody or one of the greatest investors ever and those those human elements never go away and i just love what he said is like i didn't learn anything i already knew this lesson alright lost we'll start the interview now if you guys listening like this comment in the reviews so go to itunes and leave a review or you can go to twitter what's your handle trunk is it trunk pete what is it trunk t fan t fan and then i'm at thus sam park so tweet at us i prefer you leave something in the comments because it's easier for us to see but let us know what you think and we'll see tron again soon thank you awesome thanks guys thanks for putting this on we're so jan and aj and myself had kinda put these kind of discussions together which we think would be great for a bit of a younger audience so the the first question we wanted to dig into was you're obviously here two thousand dot calm are you seeing any similarities with what's going on with a especially last couple days this weeks been kinda leave for tech and i know there's been a lot of talk about has growth run its path was covid are you seeing any similarities to the dot com air two thousand and if so what are they if not what are the differences okay i'm seeing some similarities i'm seeing some differences okay number one valuations in both periods got to what i would call man speculative levels okay monetary policy was part of the issue in ninety nine when greens span decided why i wanna run run an experiment where he let unemployment go below levels where it historically been it's nothing like the crazy stuff we're doing now but that helped set it up but what was really going on back then i mean think about the fact that nets scape didn't really exist until ninety five so other than some nerdy professors back in the early eighties no one even had email right all the stuff we had now so literally the internet was just sort of being built and the big winners in ninety nine were companies like sun micro and cisco that we're building the guts of the internet constructing it so what happened was the growth was so rapid as this went on and valuations combined with some easy money got baked in baked in those growth rates as far as the i could see but think of the internet infrastructure mike the railroads a hundred and fifty years ago and think of the tech stocks as a company selling railroad ties building the guts of the internet so once the railroad is built while you're building the railroad your sales are going up fifty sixty seventy percent a year but once the railroad is built your growth not only doesn't go up seventy percent it goes down because on a rate of change basis you don't need any more railroad ties so what none of us saw may include in early two thousand were a lot of these companies with estimates of fifty sixty seventy percent for the next two or three years their business was literally about to collapse so the nasdaq went down ninety five percent not thirty ninety five because you had this combination of inflated values way over overestimate earnings out there and then earnings collapse so today you have something similar and something different so monetary policy is absolutely insane we had no q back then our rates weren't zero they were four or five when they probably should've have been six or seven no comparison so we have an asset bubble now that's not just in tech stocks it's in everything specs joe's client with maybe some of the young viewers disagree you name it if you're an asset you've been moving but what we also have back then you had this incredible wave from ninety five to two thousand while the internet was being built what you have now is this incredible way of digital transformation particularly moving on to the cloud and i used to say two or three years ago and some interviews well we're in like the bottom of the first or the second inning and this is a ten year runway well covid sort of jumped you from the bottom half for the first to the sixth inning well at the ninth but to the sixth right i think the guy from shopify said we went from two thousand and nineteen to two thousand and thirty in one year because of covid i think i think it was him i think the difference now is if you don't if you're a customer and you haven't moved to the cloud you're dead because who you're competing against they can just beat you because the technology is so important so now full disclosure i didn't see what was coming in two thousand coming but i am really hard up to come up with a scenario while this that this digital transformation thing is gonna collapse and these saas companies are gonna go away and the biggest problem you have now is the overall bubble and asset prices and where price got to these names in particular the good news is if we had had this conversation two months ago this the good ones were like forty five or fifty times sales not earning sales they're down to there's a range i'd say now ten to twenty five times sales for the good ones so if the problem is price and in my opinion that is the problem a lot of that has been rung out and i think if you hold these names for three or four years they can easily grow at their evaluations where if you held the names in two thousand a lot of these companies you still had losses of ninety eighty five ninety percent of your value right so those are the similarities and those are the differences right so just summarize it sounds like kind of the key difference it would be the the monetary policy completely different and the the names themselves are just as a company and i'm looking in further out in the economy is just likelihood of those still existing is much higher yeah the other similarity is back then i remember a lot of value managers are virtually going out of business right at the end of two thousand one of the greatest investor of all time julian robertson who was long value and short these crazy tech names you basically threw in the town and so he couldn't take it anymore and stop managing money in early two thousand but what happened in the next three to five years was incredible companies like phelps dodge copper companies went up six to eight fold six to eight times for for the old industrial stuff so everything julian was long went up many fold and the tech stocks went down a lot we do have some similarities there because these covid companies beneficiaries so much demand was pulled forward that they got too high and too much ownership and as we're reopening there's also an ownership problem where there's probably more money that needs to rotate out of the secular growers into these i'll call them reflection names but i do wanna say very differently i think these things are secular growers and they'll probably be fine long term amazon at thirty two hundred is not a bubble stock not not whatsoever it's basically decent value right i don't just mean amazon but a lot of the but the big tech called fang names yeah right absolutely just as as a curiosity to that see i actually asked yesterday actually a bunch of my twitter of balls with you wanna ask is do you have an opinion of any of the fame kinda names including microsoft who will get the five trillion first what a great question i've always answered that with amazon at microsoft i've never really believed apple had the innovation to take you the next level and it was mainly a hardware company they obviously have morph into this services app company but as you know i it's funny that's the one that haven't talked about being monopoly but when you look at monopoly behavior charging a thirty percent rent to all these you know little companies seems a little extreme whereas amazon and microsoft they basically don't raise price so my guess my first of all i have no idea but my number one if you if you put a gun to my head or we're going to vegas would be amazon and number two would be microsoft okay google could have a big pop ironically if the government breaks them up because their core search business is literally the best business i've ever seen but they keep trying all this experimental stuff that challenges shareholder value but those guys are so rich they're more interested in changing the world right now and good for them yeah they get to do mushrooms go to the desert and just think about all things that can do in their space with them shots good well set well set i think the question here that jan ar had blood that we thought would be a great follow ups was so what is the biggest risk to the equity market right now i think you touched on some of them has to do with i guess and the couple of the valuations and just the with without without a doubt it's inflation strong enough that this fed responds to it right no doubt about it the this bubble has gone long long enough and it's extended enough that the minute they start tightening the equity market could go down a lot particularly with so much of the cap weighted in gross stocks would which would be hit the worst and our central case is that inflation occurs but we're open minded to something like o seven zero eight where you never really got to the inflation because the bubble popped so the inflation that we got to the manifestations stage that would be the second one in terms of geopolitical stuff it's become a popular view but i'm worried about taiwan and i think it's probably not a worry until after the beijing olympics right don't think xi xi jinping wants to deal with sanctions and gods and all that but i can't imagine he's not gonna try something right post of and olympics and i don't think that's big stuff that's not some little thing where yemen is fighting saudi arabia if you if you were to get worried about united states and china that could be an exogenous event right should get quite nasty absolutely so to summarize then the the inflation concern and the fed tightening it's kind of a big risk longer term out is just taiwan is actually a massive hotspot spot and post twenty twenty two the the winter olympics there there's opportunity for something to happen that's our that's our central case as you know i tend to change my mind but okay absolutely right now if you're asking me what the biggest risks are it would be them absolutely alright so the next one we had here is a more more retail oriented question or actually not mess necessarily retail oriented but it does concern retail is do you see anything from as an as a long term after effect of of what happened earlier this year with wall street bets with retail being able to congregate in one place and kinda direct money flows i know in the past you talked about the importance of liquidity and do you see any long term effects of having the ability of millions of millions of regional investors that to put their targets on a single name no let me restart the answer is yes i don't know why i just said no i guess i'm too old when i started in the business retail dominated institutions okay and you got most of your information from your broker the amazing thing about the the current retail investor is they have access to things like toggle so they're actually much better informed than the retail investors were in the late eighties and early nineties and with the internet they have tools in the way you already mentioned they congregate the big risk is they're all loaded up in this stuff you know don't confuse gina with a bull market and something exogenous talks like we're talking about and they all lose enough money that they're scarred yeah i've always thought the japanese investor would come back to the market in five or ten years after the bubble burst that was nineteen ninety and they still haven't come back right for the market so i worry about scoring but no i think my guess is the after effect of all street bets is here to stay and they'll probably migrate away from some of the more radioactive names like games stop but and i think it'll actually end up being some kind a healthy information sharing sharing network right alright let's talk about one of the most important parts of any business your crm right this is where you see who are my prospects who are my customers who are my hardcore customers and you wanna have conversations you wanna have information about them that goes throughout the all stages of the customer journey so hubspot crm platform it's easy to align your team using the features that they have like their messaging tools live chat email templates and having a unified system of record so how does it work you can install live chat on your website and this will let sales of customer support talk to your prospects you could send marketing emails on behalf of your sales reps to to your to your customers you can have prospects booked meetings with your reps for without wasting time and all of this is stored in one unified system of record so that teams can get access to all of your contact history why is it so important to have live chat and a unified system of record you ask great question it's because when your all your systems are separate you're just cobb together data from one place and data from another it's all dis disappointed you there's no single source of truth what i like when i'm the ceo of the companies to be able to click one button and see who are our customers where are they at in the journey how do we quickly message them how do we get them moving forward to success so that's what it does that's hubspot crm and you wanna learn about how you can scale your company without scaling complexity go to hubspot dot com so you did mention toggle is kind of a tool that can be used in these environments or just in general as a as a in an an investors toolkit so how different would that have been you know back in the eighties to have a tool oh my oh my god if if you had toggle and nobody else did actually murdered their results right when i started in the business fed watching which considered unique and i used ned davis and other technical services and i just felt i had a huge advantage right over the general public so any tool you have like toggle which is clearly predictive of price moves but even more interesting in this case because of the mathematical capability of it can analyze thousands of thousands of securities right i only have sixteen hours a day and i'm not that fast of a reader so if you had a tool like that back then it would be like my advantage is plus five x and the way i think about toggle is i don't know how much you know about but i've always said i like multi disciplines and managing money so my first boss taught me technical analysis so i used fundamental analysis and technical analysis and if there's thousand securities out there and my portfolio is only gonna consist of fifteen or twenty i'm never gonna buy something that doesn't have a great chart and great fundamentals right do that if you brought something like toggle into that it's just one more fantastic screening mechanism that gives me the discipline so now i've got a triple screen to hold or or buy or sell securities now that would be invaluable and again to the public who doesn't have access to information i have as an institutional investor and paying tons and tons of money to consultants something like this the value added to them could be even more valuable this to me and i find it value added right absolutely and so you did mention a lot about that you're trading back in the eighties i don't wanna say back in the day feels kinda wrong but you you can describe as someone that has a stomach of a river boat gambler i literally don't even know what that means but what i will say is what do you think are kind of the keys to a good investor right so just from your own experience so when i've looked at all the investors of very large reputation warren buffett karl icon george so they all only have one thing in common and it's the exact opposite of what they teach in a business school it's they make large concentrated bets where they have a lot of conviction they're not buying thirty five or forty names and diversifying i don't know whether you remember icon a few years ago put five billion dollars into apple and i don't think he was worth more than ten billion when he did that right i'm when i went in into tele so that i was gonna short a hundred percent of the fund in the british pound against the mark he looked at me with great disdain because he thought the story was good enough that i should be doing two hundred percent because it was sort of a once in once in a generation opportunity right cool so a they concentrate their holdings b concentration this is very counterintuitive it really gets your intention so it actually in my in my thinking decreases your overall risk because where you tend to be in trouble as if you have thirty five or forty names and you stop paying attention to one if you have big massive of positions it has your attention right so the way my favorite quote of all time maybe is mark twain put all your eggs in one basket and watch a basket carefully right i tend to think that's what great investor do the other thing to me is you gotta have to know how and when to take a loss right i've been in business since nineteen seventy six as a money manager i've never used the stop loss not once dumbest concept i've ever heard it goes was down fifteen percent i'm automatically out right i've also never hang on to a security if the reason i bought it has changed and that's when you need to sell if i buy x security for a b c and d reasons and those long longer are valid whether i have a loss or a gain that stop doesn't know whether you have a loss per gain it you know it's it is not important your ego is not what this is about what this is about is you're making money so if i have a thesis and it doesn't bear out which happens off with me i'm often i'm often wrong just get out and move on because i said earlier if you're using a most disciplined approach you can find something else there's no reason to hang on to any security where you don't have great conviction in it right no absolutely so along that kind of metric where when you say what makes a great investor is kind of the the mindset approach what about from kind of the emotional side like managing the emotions and the the psychology you you just have to be disciplined and you're constantly fighting own emotions look i'm not gonna lie to my first boss said just saying the higher they go the cheaper they look there's something weird and i know everybody watching this has experienced this and it doesn't make any sense but when a security goes up every bone in your body wants to buy more of it and when it goes down you're fighting making yourself not sell it right just it's just the nature of the beast and you have to constantly remind yourself why you own that security and just because it's going down doesn't necessarily mean you should sell it if it's going down it definitely means you should reevaluate your thesis but it doesn't mean you should sell it and you cannot get crazy when it's going up one of the probably the biggest mistake i ever made in the business and i knew better somebody asked you what i learned from this i said nothing i already knew it in january of two thousand after writing that tech boom to a t and making billions of dollars in ninety nine i sold everything out in january and i had a couple of internal portfolio managers at so who didn't sell out and they had these it was a smaller portfolio but they made thirty percent after i sold and i just couldn't stand it anymore and i'm like watching them make all this money every day and like for two days i'm like ready to pick up the phone and buy this stuff back and you know there's a little devil there and then the angel and she saying don't do it and he saying buy it and i pick up the phone and i buy them i might have missed the top of the dot com bubble by an hour i ended up losing three billion dollars on that trade alone i made more of the year before but you know three billion dollars a lot of money and it was all because i got emotional and dropped every tool of this i've ever had and some reason since we wanting to learn for from and i just said i learned nothing i learned that twenty five years ago so you can talk about not being emotional but it takes incredible discipline to to act on that no i that's i mean that's an incredible and you said you started seventy six right that's twenty four years later you've been going through it for almost quarter of a century and it still happened yep yep yep so it's something i wanted to just add on to kind of what you just mentioned was the actual approach of investing for yourself you you famously talked about looking at what makes the stock up and down at a you know what what does that mean specifically for yourself when you say what makes stock up and down what what does that mean in terms of fundamentals it it varies from stock to stock right it should thing think about cup toggle they'll find things that i didn't even know move the stock right but if it happens over and over again you figure it's not random so i'll never forget i keep going back to my boston pittsburgh but i was an analyst and i analyze retail and i'd come in with my earnings estimate on kmart and my estimate on this company and that and they just yeah but what's gonna make the stock go up and i said what do you mean and he says everybody knows what you just told me keep looking keep looking finally i came back i found out at the time by the way this is changed if you graph the change in food and energy prices over top the retail index it was like clockwork retail and food prices i'm sorry food and energy prices go up retail relative stocks go down it's not rocket science here if if you if you take discretionary spending and you increase the cost of it she's got less money to to by address and i watched that and i worked for ten or twelve years and then for some reason stuff working but there's an analysis of fundamentals which i completely endorse we're look at the balance sheet try and figure out a couple years for now what people are gonna think about this company or the earnings gonna be different than they think now that kind of stuff but then there's all the weird stuff like i just mentioned the beauty of toggle is it comes up with stuff that sometimes i don't even quite understand but frankly i don't care if the stuff works right i'm gonna go with it i'm very open minded i don't need i don't need to totally understand something if i've seen it work over and over work again right absolutely most of these things i understand yeah so the be the equivalent of toggle finding that relationship you just mentioned right the the full energy and and discretionary spending yeah and the beauty of toggle is i might get a notice one day that x y z looks good then i can do my fundamentals then i can look at the chart so it's not only a discipline in terms of buying and selling it can also be an idea generator absolutely no that makes a lot of sense now i thought this is a good opportunity to hop into something i kinda want to ask it first but i figured it'd be better than can be good there i think i know what's coming you're young i can tell but look on your face it's crypto out i'm sick i so yeah i can predict their future yeah the talk probably give you the alert right these guys about to ask her no i i'm not not gonna ask you to put a price target or anything but the the the question just just a out there to get the conversation going is does bitcoin out the opportunity to the thesis is it replacement nine trillion gold right or along those lines or it'll all match do you i mean what are your your opinion about that piece so i've involved on this okay but if you've done your homework about five or six years ago i said more than once crypto and bitcoin are a solution in search of a problem right cool what the hell are these people all looking for we already have that it's called the dollar right okay so for the first move in bitcoin i think it i went from what fifty bucks to seventeen thousand i just sat there a guest and by the way consistent with our earlier conversation i wanted to buy it every day it was going up even though i didn't i didn't think much of it but i just couldn't stand the fact that it was going up and and i didn't own it so fast forward i i never owned it from like fifty dollars to seventeen thousand feel like a moron then it goes back down to three thousand again and then a couple things happen and this this is consistent with the fundamental and then let's make something go up or down so solution in search of a problem i found the problem when we did the cares act and chairman powell started crossing all sorts of red lines in terms of what the fed would do in window the problem was jay powell and the world central bankers going nuts and making fiat money even more questionable when it already been when i used to own gold then the second thing that happened is i gotta call from paul jones and he says to me do you know that when bitcoin went from seventeen thousand to three thousand eighty six percent of people that owned it at seventeen thousand never sold it well this was huge in my mind right here's something with a finite supply eighty six percent of the owners are religious sellers i mean who the hell holds something through seventeen thousand to three thousand and it turns out none of them you know eighty six percent of people never sold it and i had this new central bank craziness phenomena the other thing that happened it had been you know it had a few more years under its belt so it goes up to six thousand in the middle of the last spring and i go well i gotta buy some of this just because these kids on the west coast that are already worth more than i am and they're gonna be making a lot more money than me in the future for some reason they're looking at this thing the way i've always looked at gold which score a value if i don't trust fiat currencies and then the thing that paul told me and then the fact that we've been around thirteen years and become a brand right so it's funny i tried to buy a hundred million at sixty two hundred it took me two weeks to buy twenty million i bought it all around sixty five hundred i think and i said this is ridiculous you know it takes me two weeks i can buy that much gold in two seconds so like an idiot i saw by it next thing i knew the things trading at thirty six thousand i took my costs and then some out of it and i still own some of it my hearts never been in it i'm a sixty eight year old dinosaur but once it started moving and these institutions started adopting it i could see the old elephant trying to get through the key hole and they can't fit through in time i own this company called pal and i see the announced with earnings today they're gonna start accepting bitcoin and they may invest that's happening all over the place and you know this thing is never gonna have more than twenty one million it's it's a it's a fixed supply so i think because it's a brand it's been around for fourteen years because of the finite supply it has sort of won the store value game is it gonna be gold i don't know it sure he'll doing a good invitation of it the last year or two but is it gonna beat the other crypto in terms of digital gold store value i would say it's gonna be very very tough to un seat then you go to what i call the commerce facilitator which obviously the lead in smart contracts and that kind of stuff would be ethereum there i'm a little more skeptical of whether they can hold their position it reminds me a little of myspace before face facebook came along or maybe a better analogy yahoo before google came along right google wasn't that much faster than yahoo but it didn't need to be all it need to be was a little bit faster right and the rest is history and i'm so impressed one of the ways we've always of us in the private sector is to try and figure out where the engineering kids from stanford and brown and mit where those kids are going and so many of them are in love with crypto and that's where they're going i i'm worried about the talent that's like twenty three to twenty eight years old somebody we don't even know who they are yet come up with a payment system or whatever and un unsettling so again i don't know but my guess is the winner in the commerce facilitating our call whether you wanna call it payments or smart contract where whatever we're on there's a good chance that company hasn't even been in or that currency hasn't even been invented yet right absolutely so bitcoin as a store value poly safer in crypto space but you mentioned the computing aspect there's a lot of potential here to be un seated yeah and i think you know as long as jay powell keeps acting like he's been acting i think gold and bitcoin and bitcoin seems to be high beta gold are gonna have the wind behind them high beta gold that's a never heard them so that is a fantastic terminology well and so fantastic i'm wondering why the hell i interest own bitcoin two years ago instead of just gold that's a little bitcoin so just just to put the cherry on top of the crypto combo you mentioned it once earlier don't coin is it just to you ridiculous and elon involvement in it like what how does what is your reaction to all that it's just a you know flex n t's it's just a manifestation of the craziest monetary policy in history right and i think since there's no limit on supply i don't really see the utility of this thing right now it's just this wave of money in the greater food theory no no just just enough now having said that i've i'm i wouldn't short it because i don't like putting campfire fires out with my face so i just try and present do claim doesn't exist right i think so little of it it doesn't even bother me when it goes up right red coin used to go up i'd go crazy that i didn't own it when do coin goes up i just i just started laughing to me it's all about jerome powell right at the end other day it goes back just through the money to joke yeah i yeah i like that how you you said about dude it's a joke i mean it was literally created as a joke so for you just a look at joe that's probably the best way for everyone look at right hey this is a joke don't even consider it it's like through irrelevant of it yeah don't go long and don't go short and you know unless you like going to vegas then i guess it's okay because a lot of action yeah absolutely so i think one of the one of the last questions we had here obviously thank you so much for your time the the question we had here was if you were twenty years old today what would you be doing as you started your career the number one necessary condition would be something i was passionate about okay particularly in this business the people that love it like me are so addicted to it and so intellectually stimulated by it if you're not and you're in for the money you have no chance competing with these people they're gonna out you they're gonna out execute you so and i think it's probably true of a lot of but let's not forget if you're american you're probably gonna spend sixty seven hours a week minimum working if you're in your job for the money and not because you love it you just blew seventy hours a week on the have on the happiness quotient that's pretty rough right so i would tell a twenty year old follow your passion i was just lucky i followed my passion my mother sell losses i'm gonna sa avant and i wouldn't be good at anything else but i would do this for fifty thousand here i really would i just i just love it and i hate to see young people get trapped in something and i would also say keep an open mind i started at phone as an english major i took economics just so i could read the paper intelligently i went to get a phd and economics and i went there and i said these people are crazy they're trying to shove the economy into a math formula it doesn't make any sense then i went to i work construction for six months i got kind of a week upper body so that didn't work for me then i went to the bank and i found out what i was just in love with and so try stuff out and if you're not really really engaged during the day and you're not happy move on to something else because there's there's something out there for everybody but i would not let money be the driver of the equation that can lead to a lot of not maximizing what i call the happiness quotient right it's the most important question in your life well you mentioned that you would be doing this job if you're making fifty grand a year of question will you will you hand over the family office when do you expect that to happen if if ever until why what well will the handover of the family office to another manager and you just go hands off happen in the near future or this is something you just want to be doing just for your own happiness question so as you probably know a lot of people when they retire they start messing around in stock market for fun so if they're all retiring and doing this to other ninety why am i supposed stop doing it what i will say is my skill set you know i think a lot of my performance has been because i'm flexible in terms of instruments i use in terms of assets so i'm not afraid to just plan bonds or currencies or this or that but my real passion is in macro and i think history would say in macro i'm probably in a plus and in equities i'm probably a b minus equities are much more labor intensive as you know there's only one yen there's only one euro treasuries i guess my dream to your excellent question would be to find a successor to run the entire equity part of my family office right but have me filling around in the macro and acting like you'll old talking head sage and you know coach to him that that'd be where i be but i i i think i would die if i couldn't if i couldn't do have some connection with the investment market and the markets during the day i just first of all i'm not very good at golf i like doing stuff i'm good at and i think that's part of what we're talking about with passion no one likes being a loser so yeah i i think i'll probably go to my grave doing this stuff but maybe not with the control i have right now well just the last comment on that point is for the equity side we you at po right absolutely absolutely takes a lot of the labor out i'll tell you that you can cover a lot more ground in an hour than you can trying to do normal reading no that's perfect i i i wrapped up on my end those are all the questions that we had and it was amazing stan that was a incredibly insightful and i really appreciate your time thank you to jan and marjorie you for setting that up yeah okay guys hopefully there's no good for everybody yeah i feel like i could rule word i know i could be what i want to from at all in it like a days off on a goal travel never looking back